An Update of my Forecast of Global Recession

I have written several articles in 2019 warning about the coming global recession, for example Yiu (2019a) titled “Global Recession is Imminent, HK Government Launches Unorthodox Measures”. Finally, Hong Kong led the world to dive into the recessionary ocean since the 3rd quarter of 2019 (Yiu, 2019b).

Yet, the percents of the Quarter-on-Quarter fall were not big, and people may think that it was just the consequence of the social movement in Hong Kong, which would not be a GLOBAL RECESSION!

However, a pandemic (COVID-19) was broken out almost at the same time when Hong Kong has announced a technical recession (negative QoQ changes in 2 consecutive quarters). It spreads from Wuhan to the whole world within a few months, and it infected more than 6 million people (the number of confirmed cases) and claimed more than 380,000 lives, at the time of writing this article. The lockdowns of hundreds of cities and the suspension of international traffic have caused huge economic losses, and most of the economies recorded a substantial negative fall of GDP (QoQ) in the first quarter of 2020, some of the magnitudes are unprecedentedly large. Many governments are expecting further negative plummet in the 2nd quarter of 2020.

As an update, the following are some of the economies that had reported their 2020Q1 GDP and confirmed 2 consecutive negative falls (i.e. technically these are in a recession), they are France (-0.1%, -5.3%), Germany (-0.1%, -2.2%), Japan (-1.9%, -0.9%) and Hong Kong (-0.5%, -5.3%).

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Figure 1 QoQ of France GDP
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Figure 2 QoQ of Germany GDP
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Figure 3 QoQ of Japan GDP
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Figure 4 QoQ of HK GDP

Table 1 shows the figures of the 4 recessionary economies (in red), and another 5 economies recording big plummets in 2020Q1, viz. China (-9.8%), Singapore (-4.7%), USA (-2.0%), South Korea (-1.3%) and Australia (-0.3%). Of course, there are many other economies that have even more severe economic blows, but some of them have not reported their Q1 GDP, or other reasons. In case you know any other recessionary economies and want to share your updates, please leave your comments below.

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Table 1 The QoQ GDP Changes of the 9 Economies in 2020Q1 and 2019Q4. Sources: Trading Economics

References

Yiu, C.Y. (2019a) Global Recession is Imminent, HK Government Launches Unorthodox Measures, Medium, Oct 20. https://medium.com/@ecyY/global-recession-is-imminent-hk-government-launches-unorthodox-measures-328be685de51

Yiu, C.Y. (2019b) Hong Kong runs ahead of the world to jump into the global recession first, Medium, Nov 1. https://medium.com/@ecyY/hong-kong-runs-ahead-of-the-world-to-jump-into-the-global-recession-first-bf30fb1c4e23

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ecyY is the Founder of Real Estate Development and Building Research & Information Centre REDBRIC

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